Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Playing Santa for the New Orleans Saints

It’s that time of year again when Santa BAW digs deep into his bag of presents and spreads Yuletide cheer throughout Who Dat Nation. This ol’ graybeard truly knows who’s been bad or good in 2010, at least when it comes to the Black and Gold.

So without further adieu, climb up on Santa BAW’s bony lap …

To owners Tom Benson/Rita Benson LeBlanc … the wisdom and understanding to assist your peers in striking a fair and equitable deal with the NFL Players Association to avoid a work stoppage in 2011.

To GM Mickey Loomis … A long, successful run in the upcoming postseason. There’s only one thing better than one Lombardi Trophy, and that’s two. 2DAT, baby!

To Coach Sean Payton … A flood of holiday orders for your book, “Home Team,’’ so you can at least make your sales race with Drew Brees look respectable. Ol’ Santa BAW understands No. 9 is winning the book bet in a walk.

To Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams … the right opportunity to become a head coach again. And if that doesn’t work out this offseason, c’mon back and spin your magic for another year in the Big Easy.

To QB Drew Brees … A new blockbuster contract during the offseason in line with your QB brethren Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Eli Manning. But beyond the money, continue to be the gift that keeps on giving for our city and our region.

To RB Chris Ivory … a healthy right hamstring in time for the postseason.

To LT Jermon Bushrod … a new long-term deal comparable to the one reached by Tampa Bay LT Donald Penn (6 years, $48 million, including $20 million guaranteed).

To FS Darren Sharper … when the time is right, the courage to step away from the game without regret and take the next step on your journey through life (ESPN, NFL Network?).

To Saints equipment men Dan Simmons and Glennon “Silky’’ Powell … another year together in the trenches.

To LB Scott Shanle … a year’s supply of shaving cream and 5-track razors to keep your shiny top smooth and silky sheen.

To FB Heath Evans … a buyer with deep pockets for your spacious home in old Metairie.

To RB Pierre Thomas … Never again a high-ankle sprain, or a low-ankle sprain or a torn ligament or whatever it was that sidelined you for nine games.

To RT Jon Stinchcomb … A long, healthy reign for Uga VIII, the great-great-great-great-great-grandson of the original Uga, the bulldog mascot at your alma mater, University of Georgia.

To the Saints’ GAME-DAY “CHAIN GANG’’ … protective headgear and other pertinent protective gear for the body when standing defenseless on the sideline.

To CB Tracy Porter … May you always have safe passage on the street named after you in your hometown of Porter Allen, er, Port Allen.

To TE Jeremy Shockey … a new, colorful provocative tattoo to add to your collection.

To WR Marques Colston …May you walk to your own drum and never join the NFL wide receiver diva club. It appears Atlanta WR Rowdy Roddy White is trying to get in the act with T.O., Ochocinco and others.

To TE Jimmy Graham … May you win every jumpball inside the white lines.

To DE Will Smith … a victory for your alma mater, Ohio State, over Arkansas in the 2011 Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 4 at the Superdome.

To DT Sedrick Ellis … a backstage pass to see your hero, Pee-wee Herman, in his stage show on Broadway that is currently playing a limited engagement.

To the 9 members on Injured Reserve -- S Chris Reis, CB Randall Gay, RB Ladell Betts, LB Stanley Arnoux, Jonathan Casillas, LS Jason Kyle, RB P.J. Hill, RB Lynell Hamilton, and FB Marcus Mailei ... A healthy return to the football field in 2011.

To SS Roman Harper … a year’s supply of “Just For Men’’ and a tank of gas.

To MLB Jonathan Vilma … a contract extension with WVUE-TV.

To K Garrett Hartley … no more “Captain Hook’’ cracks from this correspondent.

To RG Jahri Evans … the new CD out for the holidays entitled “Hold That Line’’ sung by the NFL Officials Choir.

To LS Justin Drescher, QB Chase Daniel and PK Garrett Hartley … the football field named after y’all at your alma mater, Southlake Carroll (Texas) High School. GEAUX DRAGONS!

FS Malcolm Jenkins … A bigger cubicle at Saints camp to hold all your weekly NFL awards. Hint: One might be opening up nearby after the season if No. 42 hangs it up.

To P Thomas Morstead … Another successful “Ambush.’’

To RB Reggie Bush … Santa BAW must be getting soft in his old age, so instead of putting a piece of coal in your stocking this Christmas, I'm going to offer a few words of friendly advice for your growing legion of critics -- DO UNTO OTHERS AS YOU WOULD HAVE OTHERS DO UNTO YOU.

And to Who Dat Nation … Keep believin’ in the Black and Gold.

So from SANTA BAW and everyone at NewOrleans.com ... Yo-Yo-Yo, Merry Christmas and a safe and prosperous New Year! 

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

2010 Census Results a Disaster for Obama Re-election

John McCain won 173 electoral votes in the 2008 presidential election, but needed 270 to win. However, based on the 2010 Census numbers released today, the states that McCain won have experienced a substantial net increase in population, while the states won by Obama experienced a net loss of population.

These population changes result in a net six (6) additional Electoral Votes in the "McCain states." In other words, states that went for McCain now hold 179 Electoral Votes: 270 votes are still required to win.

But much has changed in two years since Obama's election.

In elections prior to 2008, North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Ohio were widely considered to be strong "Red States," dependably Republican states.

Obama won in states that now clearly and strongly oppose his re-election. On virtually the most popular day of Obama's life in November 2008, the President only won North Carolina (which has 15 Electoral Votes) by 1%. In Indiana, with 11 Electoral Votes, Obama just won by 1%. In Ohio, now with 18 Electoral Votes, Obama won by only 4%; and Obama won Florida's 29 EVs by just 3%.

Obama's numbers have collapsed in these four crucial Red States, with the GOP making huge gains in all of them in 2010. Polls say that McCain would clearly win these four states today.

In three of these states Republicans now hold total control: Ohio, Indiana and Florida. These three have Republican governors as well as majorities in both the House and Senate. In North Carolina, the GOP controls both the House and Senate, though the governor there is a Democrat (who was elected in 2008, before Obama's numbers collapsed).

What does this mean in terms of the Presidential Election?

The 2012 Republican nominee starts with a base of the 179 "McCain state" Electoral Votes (post-reapportionment), plus an almost certain additional 73 votes from North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Indiana.

That means the Republican nominee starts with a base of 252 Electoral Votes in 2012, 18 short of the 270 needed to win.

VIRGINIA, with 13 Electoral Votes, becomes the first key battleground, and today it would clearly go Republican. Republicans took back this state in 2009 with the election of a new Governor. Obama however carried the state by just 6%. Winning Virginia means the GOP would have 265 Electoral Votes, five short.

If the GOP wins Virginia, it only needs one more state to win the required 270+ Electoral votes. The easiest state-by-state path to success would be through Nevada (6 EV), Iowa (6 EV), Colorado (9 EV), Wisconsin (10 EV), or Minnesota (10 EV).

Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa all have all changed since Obama's election, and today the GOP holds dominant control in all three: Republican Governors as well as GOP majorities in both the House and the Senate. Nevada now has a GOP governor, and the GOP holds the House in Colorado.

The 2010 reapportionment essentially gives Republicans an additional crucial mid-sized state of six Electoral Votes toward the goal of 270. The GOP now needs to switch only one traditionally Blue State to Red in order to win. Reapportionment could be the defining moment of the yet-to-be-held 2012 Presidential Election.

Mark Rountree is President of Landmark Communications, Inc., a political consulting firm based in metro Atlanta. Landmark is a full-service political consulting and communications firm based in metro Atlanta, Georgia. With a staff of eight, 20 years in continual operation, and professional engagement in more than 800 different elections, Landmark is Georgia's most experienced and successful political consulting firm.

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